| 24.8% | Morsy | 5,764,952 |
| 23.7% | Shafik | 5,505,327 |
| 20.7% | Sabahy | 4,820,273 |
| 17.5 % | Fotouh | 4,065,239 |
| 11.1 % | Moussa | 2,588,850 |
| 1.0 % | Awa | 235,374 |
| 0.6 % | Khaled Ali | 134,056 |
| 0.2 % | Hariri | 40,090 |
| 0.1 % | Bastawisi | 29,189 |
| 0.1 % | Hossam | 23,992 |
| 0.1 % | Fawzy | 23,889 |
| 0.1 % | Khairallah | 22,036 |
| 23,253,267 |
Above are the numbers that each of the 13 candidates got. What we can do is make assumptions in order to get an idea of who has the highest chances of winning. Round 1 was a total surprise for us so we cannot presume that we can know exactly what will happen in round 2.
Scenario 1:
- All Moussa votes go to Shafik. This is very likely. A Moussa voter is not likely to vote for Morsy.
- All Fotouh voters go to Morsy: Again this is an assumption. There were liberals who voted Fotouh and they will either abstain or might go to Shafik out of fear from the MB. But in this scenario we assume that all Fotouh votes will go to Morsy.
- All Awa votes go to Morsy
- 50% of Sabahy votes go to Shafik. Many of those who voted Sabahy voted for a non-political Islamists revolutionary who managed to reached millions of Egyptians through his simple straightforward heartfelt rhetoric. It is almost impossible to predict where these votes will go. How these voters will vote will decide the elections especially if all Fotouh voters went to Morsy. Shafik will need as many Sabahy votes as possible in order to win. In this scenario we assume that Shafik will get 50% of Sabahy votes and 50% will abstain. I am assuming that the Delta, Alex, Cairo and Giza voters who voted Sabahy did so because they didn’t want to vote Muslim Brotherhood. This is why in this scenario we assume that Shafik will take some of Sabahy’s votes.
- Winner: Shafik
Scenario 2:
- Same as above except that instead of 50% of Sabahy votes abstaining, they go to Morsy instead.
- Winner: Morsy
From the above two scenarios we learn the following:
- Any movement of Fotouh votes away from Morsy (whether to Shafik or abstaining) will affect Morsy’s chances of winning.
- We can assume that Fotouh voters are more likely to vote Morsy than Shafik, in this case, Sabahy votes will decide the race. Where will they go?? How many of them will abstain? These questions will determine who is the next president of Egypt.
Its not true that all Moussa votes are going to Shafik. A lot of us are abstaining, and I’ve seen Moussa voters , planning on voting for Morsi. Many people thought Moussa would make the best president and wasn’t necessarily anti revolution, or implicated in the regimes crimes.
Comment by Sam Amin — June 2, 2012 @ 11:48 am
Moussa’s supporters, unlike Shafiq’s, were eager for progress, but put a high value on effectiveness, not a return back… The former regime supporters always hated Moussa and considered him a “revolutionary” long before the revolution… This applies to businessmen, government officials, and party operatives. Many of his supporters even hated the old regime, and would abstain or even vote for Morsi… Some will vote for Shafiq of course, but they are as up for grabs as Sabahi’s supporters…
Comment by Ayman — June 3, 2012 @ 11:14 pm
Tahrir square = Raper’s Square
Comment by Wrld — June 28, 2012 @ 4:54 pm