Friday, June 1, 2012

Shafik vs Morsy: Who will win based on round 1 numbers?

24.8% Morsy 5,764,952
23.7% Shafik 5,505,327
20.7% Sabahy 4,820,273
17.5 % Fotouh 4,065,239
11.1 % Moussa 2,588,850
1.0 % Awa 235,374
0.6 % Khaled Ali 134,056
0.2 % Hariri 40,090
0.1 % Bastawisi 29,189
0.1 % Hossam 23,992
0.1 % Fawzy 23,889
0.1 % Khairallah 22,036
23,253,267

Above are the numbers that each of the 13 candidates got. What we can do is make assumptions in order to get an idea of who has the highest chances of winning. Round 1 was a total surprise for us so we cannot presume that we can know exactly what will happen in round 2.

Scenario 1:

- All Moussa votes go to Shafik. This is very likely. A Moussa voter is not likely to vote for Morsy.

- All Fotouh voters go to Morsy: Again this is an assumption. There were liberals who voted Fotouh and they will either abstain or might go to Shafik out of fear from the MB. But in this scenario we assume that all Fotouh votes will go to Morsy.

- All Awa votes go to Morsy

- 50% of Sabahy votes go to Shafik. Many of those who voted Sabahy voted for a non-political Islamists revolutionary who managed to reached millions of Egyptians through his simple straightforward heartfelt rhetoric. It is almost impossible to predict where these votes will go. How these voters will vote will decide the elections especially if all Fotouh voters went to Morsy. Shafik will need as many Sabahy votes as possible in order to win. In this scenario we assume that Shafik will get 50% of Sabahy votes and 50% will abstain. I am assuming that the Delta, Alex, Cairo and Giza voters who voted Sabahy did so because they didn’t want to vote Muslim Brotherhood. This is why in this scenario we assume that Shafik will take some of Sabahy’s votes.

- Winner: Shafik

Scenario 2:

- Same as above except that instead of 50% of Sabahy votes abstaining, they go to Morsy instead.

- Winner: Morsy

From the above two scenarios we learn the following:

- Any movement of Fotouh votes away from Morsy (whether to Shafik or abstaining) will affect Morsy’s chances of winning.

- We can assume that Fotouh voters are more likely to vote Morsy than Shafik, in this case, Sabahy votes will decide the race. Where will they go?? How many of them will abstain? These questions will determine who is the next president of Egypt.

  Posted by BP at 11:34 pm Comments (3)