Thursday, May 31, 2012

The pros and cons of all options you have in round 2

Voting Morsy


– You will weaken the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF). Losing the presidency will put SCAF in a very awkward position. They will have to either seek to renew their understandings with the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) or try to impose some “National Security Council” that will act as SCAF’s arm inside the presidency.

– You will stop Shafik! A remnant of Mubarak’s regime. Shafik is an ardent supporter of Mubarak and a hater of the revolution. He will mostly return us back to pre-revolution Egypt. This is the Egypt he believes in.

– Shafik is merely a puppet of SCAF. By denying him the presidency you weaken the military rule that have ruled us for the past 60 years. You will not end the influence of the army generals, but you’ll just weaken them.

– You will vote for meeting the demands of the revolution provided that the MB were sincere in returning back to the revolutionary force and putting the interests of the revolution above that of their organization. Highly doubtful of course, but who knows, may be the MB learned something from the presidential elections. They might seek national consensus this time after knowing that they don’t have a monopoly over the vast majority of voters.

– Morsy is a civilian. He doesn’t have guns to kill you with. He doesn’t have APCs to crush you under. If the MB will refrain from using their civilian militias (which we encountered in Tahrir and at the parliament), it will be easier to protest against Morsy. Protesting against civilians was always easier and safer than protesting against a military junta.

– The MB, the ONLY organized and richest political organization in Egypt, only garnered 25% of the votes in the presidential elections. Only 200 thousand votes separated them from Mubarak’s prime minister! Why did the MB get far lesser votes than the parliament elections? Because the people saw them in power. Put Morsy in the presidency and they might end up losing more ground.


– You will give the MB everything. The Coptic Orthodox Papacy and the seats around your dining table will be the only seats not filled by the MB and their Salafi cohorts. And we’ve all seen what happens when the MB get everything.

– In an MB-controlled country, they will try to bring every institution under their control. There won’t be an establishment that can balance their power. An example was what they wanted to do to the Constitutional Court by trying to pass a law that would render it ineffective. In an MB country, the street will be the only place you can go if you want to protest their supreme leader since everything else could be under their domination.

– There is a universal law that states: you can trust an angry 57 years old transsexual prostitute that got kicked out of Amsterdam’s Red Lights District but you can never trust the MB or trust what they say!

– I believe Egypt can never be Iran nor Saudi especially after the MB saw how the majority of Egyptians are willing to vote against them and even against Islamists . The MB candidate got 25% of the vote in the presidential elections, and the political Islamist candidates got 43% of the vote. However do expect some laws here and there. FGM, lowering the age of marriage, making it harder to obtain Khula, porn ban, etc. In an MB controlled country, there won’t be anyone who can stand against them especially if they managed to bring the courts and Azhar to their knees.

– A vote for Morsy is a vote for Khairat el Shater. An Ahmed Ezz but with a beard.

Voting Shafik:


– You will create some sort of balance in the executive branch of government between the parliament and the presidency.

– Who can better watch what a thief does and expect his next moves? The police? No. Only another thief can anticipate what his fellow thief will do. It is sometimes good to put two gangs together, watching over each other. One gang will monopolize everything and devour us.

– If you’re already uncomfortable with a political Islamist party controlling parliament, you might want to see a non-political Islamist in the presidency.

– Putting SCAF and MB in the same cage. They will tear each other apart if they didn’t renew their understandings, weaken each other and Hamdeen Sabahy becomes president in 2016!


– Shafik will return us to square one. It’ll be as if we have not done a revolution. He will empower our brutal police and State Security especially if the presidency remained in control of the ministry of interior. He will not be another dictator because I believe Egypt will not be ruled by a dictator anymore, but he will bring back many of the aspects that shaped Mubarak’s regime.

– A vote for Shafik is a vote for SCAF and their continued meddling in our civilian affairs.

– If you’ve been to the square in the past year and a half, if you’ve been in Mohamed Mahmoud, it’ll be very difficult for you to vote Shafik.

– If SCAF and the MB did not reach a new understanding, the parliament and the presidency will be in continual rivalry and won’t achieve anything for the country. That might be a good thing though. That wi’ll weaken them both in the coming 4 years.



– If a lot of people abstained, the legitimacy of the elected president will be minimized.

– You will be following your conscience if you don’t want to vote for either candidates.

– You will relieve yourself of the guilt you might feel if you voted for any of the two candidates.


– Those abstaining should be the vast majority of eligible voters, I would say 70%, in order to have an effect on the next president’s legitimacy

– Abstaining will not prevent either Morsy or Shafik from becoming president.

Ruining your vote:


- You will make a statement and feel better about afterwards.

– The pros of abstaining are also the pros of ruining your vote

– If a large number of voters ruined their vote, the next president will know that there is a base of voters who stood for hours in the queue just to tell him that he is not wanted. Ruining your vote sends a more powerful message than abstaining.


– Same as the cons of abstaining

– When they will announce the number of ruined votes, people will not know how many of these ruined votes were the results of mistakes done on the ballots and how many were intensional ruined votes. Plus, you will be counted among the turnout votes and thus will give legitimacy to the elections as a whole.

Regardless of the option you’ll opt for, we’ll still be saying:

Down with military rule يسقط يسقط حكم العسكر

Down with the rule of the supreme leader يسقط يسقط حكم المرشد

Two you cannot trust, the generals and the Ikhwan اثنين مالهمش امان, العسكر و الاخوان

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