After the Maspero massacre I waited to hear the reaction of the White House and the US State Department. The US has the highest stake in Egypt given the long strategic relationship it had with Egypt’s presidents since Anwar Sadat, not to mention the $1.3 billion in military aid that goes directly to the military junta governing the country today.
Why was I so keen on hearing the reaction from the US? Because I wanted to know whether the Obama adminstration had gotten the message SCAF wanted to deliver ever since they allowed the Israeli embassy to be stormed. And this message can be summarized as follows: it’s either us or chaos in Egypt, it’s either us or sectarian strife. Even though we’re aligned with the coutry’s Islamic parties in order to keep them quiet until we secure our position in new Egypt, we’re the only ones capable of confining their ambitions. We’re the only ones capable of drawing the red lines for them. You might turn out to be lucky in Tunisia, but look at Libya, look at Yemen. In Libya, the radical Islamists who form a large portion of its freedom fighter might very soon start their own fight for a Taliban-style religious state. In Yemen, it might fall into the hands of Al Qaeda if the Saleh regime collapsed. You might risk your stakes in Libya and Yemen, but you definitely don’t want to risk them in strategic Egypt.
Judging from the US’ mild statement after the massacre, I believe SCAF’s message was delivered. And it was not just delivered to the international community, but also to the general public as well. Fear and insecurity dominates the country today, and very few would like to collide with the military junta whom they consider to be the last remaining pillar holding the country together.
This takes us to what I believe will happen to activists in Egypt. After ensuring that there won’t be much of a powerful objection from the inside front nor the international community, I believe SCAF will crackdown on activists and media unprecedentedly.
Just a few hours ago, the military prosecutor ordered the detainment of popular blogger and activist Alaa Abdel Fattah. Alaa was not the first, he comes after several activists and movements were targeted and intimidated by SCAF. And why not? An almost mute general public and fear-filled international community will make the job much more easier.
The shutters are really coming down with the elections approaching. While the Brotherhood are campaigning on issues such as social justice in poorer neighbourhoods, the SCAF are making sure that activists, who have dedicated themselves to these causes, are distracted by fighting for prisoners of conscience.
As for the internationals, I naively watched their news today for some mention of Alaa’s detainment. I guess they took their money shot in February.
Comment by aymanscribbler — October 31, 2011 @ 1:38 am
As a US citizen, I was disgusted that the White House has been silent about the SCAF activities against Egyptian citizens. It seems that those in ruling positions whether in the US, Europe or the Middle East act as an exclusive club, making the decisions, manipulating events, and making deals which provides them with wealth, power and security. I worry about the activists in Egypt whose hopes and dreams are centered on a better Egypt for all Egyptians, and not just the privileged ones in positions of power. I wonder if there is a smarter way of dealing with this situation rather than head on against those who have the guns and the power now. The situation makes me feel extremely worried and anxious for the well-being of the Egyptian people.
BP, please be very careful yourself.
Comment by lynne — November 2, 2011 @ 12:17 am
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[...] The Big Pharaoh added that the SCAF is also trying to deliver a certain message, not only the the Egyptians, but also to the US administration. I wanted to know whether the Obama [...]
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